Analysts Forecast 18.1% October Inflation
Ahead of next week Thursday’s release of the Consumer Price Index or inflation data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), economic analysts expect that headline inflation for the month of October will rise to 18.1 per cent year-on-year, up from 17.9 per cent in September.
As has now become the norm, the analysts of the research arm of Dunn Loren Merrifield Limited, an investment banking group based in Lagos, say the further rise would be propelled by food and core inflation.
The rise by 27bps, according to the report authored by Kate Isabota, is based on its model which “shows a movement in the food sub-index captured by “farm produce and processed foods” to 213.3points in October 2016 up from 182.6points in the corresponding period of the previous year.
“In addition, we expect a movement in the core sub-index to 205.4points up from 174.4points in October 2015. Hence, this translates into a food and core inflation of approximately 16.8 percent and 17.8 percent respectively in October 2016,” the report added.
The report however noted that on a month-on-month basis, “the pace of price increases slowed marginally to 0.80 percent from 1.00 percent in August 2016.
“Whilst the year-on-change in the headline index has largely maintained its upward trajectory in the last eleventh months, we observe the decline in month-on-change particularly in the last four months.